Monday, January 4, 2021

WSJ Crossword Contest (12/31 - 1/3) "The Party Starts at 10"

The Wall Street Journal has a fun series where each Friday (in this case, Thursday), they release a meta-puzzle with a phrase you need to find. This was the WSJ contest to begin the year.

"The Party Starts at 10"

The answer to this week's contest is a four-word phrase you might hear tonight (NYE).


Generally speaking, the way metas work is that there is a clue that highlights what answers are most likely to be useful for solving the meta puzzle. Additionally, the title of the puzzle will help, so something with a "10" may be helpful (whether it is an answer, a clue, or something else is still TBD). Lastly, we use the fact that this is a four-word solution on NYE. In this case, a combination of 66A and 67A give us the solution.

  • 66A "Three...two...___..." (last words of the year, often): "ONE"
  • 67A Some are ten letters long in this grid: "DOWNS"
66A clues us that we are likely looking for the last three of something given that it is a New Years Eve themed quiz. 67A highlights that we should look at the Down answers with 10 letters, of which there are 4:
  • 3D Google co-founder: "SERGEY BRIN"
  • 18D A candidate might win by it: "WIDE MARGIN"
  • 22D Machinist's tool: "METAL LATHE"
  • 30D Governor of Maryland in 1968: "SPIRO AGNEW"
I've bolded the last 3 letters as clued by 66A. But I actually realized this because of the NYE tilt. It seemed too perfect that 30D would end in "NEW", and after looking at the other 10 letter clues, I was able to get the groups of letters which in order will spell our answer "RING IN THE NEW".

The party may start at 10, but I'll give this WSJ only 9 out of 10 new years.

Sunday, January 3, 2021

WaPo Crossword January 3, 2021 (And Cut!)

I am a huge fan of Evan Birnholz's puzzles, and his last puzzle of 2020 is a must-solve for any crosswords fan. After a tour de force like that, one can be forgiven for a more modest, but still fun, Sunday solve.

January 3, 2021 ("And Cut!")

Time: ~10:55


The bubbles each spell out a move, but they are split across multiple clues. A fun one because you can either know the two parts separately or recognize the film.

  • 24A / 25A Mascara site / 1953 western directed by George Stevens / Began ___ (started over): "LASH / ANEW" (SHANE)
  • 30A / 33A Sister of Peter Rabbit / 1960 thriller set at the Bates Motel / Food, informally: "FLOPSY / CHOW" (PSYCHO)
  • 35A / 36A Oslo Accords grp. / 1961 romantic drama starring Anouk Aimee / ___ Vegas: "PLO / LAS" (LOLA)
  • 46A / 47A Author Munro / 2002 animated comedy featuring a woolly mammoth / Movie star's representative: "ALICE / AGENT" (ICE AGE)
  • 49A / 50A Tiny tunneler / 1981 drama that follows a group of military trainees / See 80 Down [with 50 Across, dogs first brought as gifts from the Dalai Lama in the 1930s]: "ANT / [LHASA] APSOS" (TAPS) (Sidenote: what a mouthful)
  • 66A / 69A Best director award / 1983 crime drama about the drug lord Tony Montana / Aspect: "OSCAR / FACET" (SCARFACE)
  • 87A / 88A Parish priest / 2006 animated film with Piston Cup racers / Take a load off: "VICAR / SIT" (CARS)
  • 89A / 90A Pulsate / 1995 historical drama set in 18th-century Scotland / Rolls-____: "THROB / ROYCE" (ROB ROY)
  • 100A / 101A Hair goo / 2016 thriller for which Isabelle Huppert was nominated for an Academy Award / "My Name is Asher ___" (Chaim Potok novel): "GEL / LEV" (ELLE)
  • 102A / 103A Blood fluids / 1996 action film starring Arnold Schwarzenegger / "All-Night Vigil" composer Rachmaninoff: "SERA / SERGEI" (ERASER)
  • 112A / 113A Linux predecessor / 1995 historical drama that begins at the Watergate Hotel / Black gem: "UNIX / ONYX" (NIXON)
  • 114A Film technique showing a divided frame...and what's spelled out by the first letters of this puzzle's 11 divided films "SPLITSCREEN"
At first, I was concerned that this was just about splitting movie titles apart. But Evan Birnholz never disappoints and of course, the movies all were connected. A terrific Sunday puzzle. Other clues and answers of note:
  • 7D Deflect, as an epee: "PARRY". It's always fun to see a crossword favorite like "epee" show up in a clue.
  • 58A "Frozen" freezer: "ELSA". I'm also a sucker for alliteration, especially when it clues Elsa in a different way.
  • 70D Five-time Silver Slugger Award winner Robinson ___: "CANO". Those Silver Slugger Awards are quite blah when you realize he has multiple PED suspensions.
I give this puzzle 23 personalities out of 24 ("Split"...screen, gonna leave the Beast out of it).

NYT Crossword January 3, 2021 (Busting Moves)

 A wonderful Sunday puzzle from the NYT by one of the youngest constructors (as I found out on Twitter). 

January 3, 2021

Time: 14:30


First things first, this is the first themed puzzle of the year for me. The theme is all about busting moves, which can only mean dancing! And not just dancing, but "busting" them up into two sections. With both circles and shades, we can more easily see both the theme and the nice mini-meta-message hidden in the clues.

  • 23A Title for Iran's Ali Khamenei: "SUPREME LEADER". The dance is "REEL", a Scottish style. The shaded letter was "M"
  • 25A Tailored blouse style: "SHIRTWAIST". The dance is "TWIST", popularized in the film Pulp Fiction. The shaded letter was "A".
  • 43A Subject of some teen gossip sessions: "BOY PROBLEMS". The dance is "BOP", though thankfully not of the Kidz variety. The shaded letter was "Y".
  • 47A Sure-footed alpine climber: "MOUNTAIN GOAT". The dance is "TANGO", of which it takes at least two. The shaded letter was "I".
  • 68A Bakery item that's often messy: "CRUMB CAKE". The dance is "RUMBA", not the vacuum. The shaded letter was "C".
  • 88A Caribbean capital: "PORT AU PRINCE". The dance is "TAP", which I'm aware of as a huge Dule Hill fan. The shaded letter was "U".
  • 91A Kind of test question: "SHORT ANSWER". The dance is "HORA", the wonderful Jewish wedding dance. The shaded letter was "T".
  • 114A Proceeds breezily: "SAILS ALONG". The dance is "SALSA", the source of this great Ben Stiller scene. The shaded letter was "I".
  • 117A What a spike goes over: "VOLLEYBALL NET". The dance is "BALLET", as in the Joffrey. The shaded letter was "N".
When you put the shaded letters together, you get the message "MAY I CUT IN", both fitting for a dance and for the overall theme of a letter breaking up a dance. The idea is brilliant and comes with an amazing payoff with the mini-message. Some other clues of note:
  • 6D Title nickname in a 1984 sports movie: "KARATE KID". Daniel LaRusso and Johnny Lawrence are back in Cobra Kai, but you really can't beat a classic.
  • 50D Breaking or entering, say: "GERUND". Where my grammar nerds at?
Overall I give it a 5, a 6, a 5, 6, 7, 8 steps out of 8.

Saturday, January 2, 2021

NYT Crossword January 2, 2021

 2 for 2 in 2021! A decently fun Saturday crossword. 

Saturday January 2, 2021

Time: 14:32

Themeless Saturdays! Some fun clues of note:

  • 13A It has wheels and flies: "ROLLER BAG". Road warrior mentality all the way.
  • 12D ("HALF SIZES") and 60A ("BITE SIZED") both seem to have the mini-sizes involved. A bit unfortunate that there are two uses of the "size", but always great to see Z's in crosswords
  • 33D Dance-based class in a pool: "AQUA ZUMBA". Can you do Zumba underwater? Apparently the answer is yes.
  • 51A Milk, slangily: "MOO JUICE". Ew. Got Milk? didn't become one of the biggest milk campaigns to become equivalent to MOO JUICE.
I'd like to say I had the best take on this, but I'll leave it to WaPo's own Evan Birnholz:

Overall, I give it 3 and a half Moo's out of 5. 

Friday, January 1, 2021

NYT Crossword January 1, 2021

 I decided this year to lean into my love for crosswords and start to review them. Going into 2021, I had solved 1,673 NYT crosswords (as well as a number of other ones), and I enter the year with a solid streak of 33 crosswords completed in a row. I'm fairly certain I wrote at least one of my college essays on the joys of crosswording. So without further ado, here it goes.

Friday Jan 1, 2021

Time: 8:43


Theme? It was a fitting start to 2021, as the central squares read out "2021". I liked 3 of the four solves here, though was slightly disappointed by "01ALUMS" for 38D ("First graduates of the new millennium, informally"). Some other interesting ones of note:

  • 51A Passe:  "SO LAST YEAR". Let's leave 2020 in the past now, shall we?
  • 21A You might get a kick of this at a restaurant: "HOT SAUCE". Spicy tolerance set high today, and a fitting intersection with "SPICED UP".
  • 57A Some instant breakfast packets: "OATMEALS". Can't go wrong with Quakers Instant Oats.
Overall, a fun solve. It falls short of the A-plus average, so I'll give it a solid B / B+.

Wednesday, December 2, 2020

Is the Phrase "Defund the Police" Hurting the Democrats?

Former President Obama recently had an interview where had this to say about "Defund the Police":

"You lost a big audience the minute you say it [Defund the Police], which makes it a lot less likely that you're actually going to get the changes you want done..."

Obama also called "Defund the Police" a 'snappy slogan'. Now there are a lot of things that you can rightfully quibble with, from the reference of "Defund the Police" as a slogan (kind of belittling), bickering about audience (when actual people have died at the hands of the police), and complaining about losing power (where Obama was fairly derelict in maintaining the legislative branch as President). But if you want criticism, many people have already dragged Obama (including Rep.-elect Cori Bush who ran on a Defund the Police platform). But let's break down the idea a bit further. It boils down to one question: "How can you enact a progressive agenda without alienating the populace?"

The Statistics

Let's get it straight right away. Just because an idea is unpopular does not mean that the idea is inherently wrong. With that said, "Defund the Police" is an unpopular idea right now. According to Pew Research, only 25% of people polled supported reducing the budget for the police department while 31% of people polled supported increasing the budget. 42% supported no change. But let's go to Black Lives Matter, which is the organization tied closest to "Defund the Police". According to Civiqs data, in April 2017, only 38% of registered voters supported Black Lives Matter, a number that wavered throughout 2017 despite the Charlottesville Rally. However, in 2018, more registered voters supported Black Lives Matter than opposed (40% to 39%), but it stayed below a majority until this past summer. In the wake of protests over George Floyd, Ahmaud Arbery, and Breonna Taylor's deaths, Black Lives Matter hit a peak of 53% supporting, which fell to 48% supporting by end of November.

Another corollary you could look at is healthcare. Let's start with Obamacare. In 2013, only 24% of those polled thought it had a net benefit to the country as a whole compared to 38% who said it didn't. In 2017 (7 years after Obamacare was initially passed), that opinion flipped where now 44% of those polled thinks it has a net benefit compared to 35% who said it didn't. That's a 23 point swing in opinion over 4 years!

What did we learn

Yes - Defund the Police is an unpopular phrase right now, and it arguably had some impact on Democrats, who lost very real seats in the House and lost key Senate races (most notably the Maine Senate race). Losing power does make it more difficult to enact these changes, but it also does not mean we should abandon these sentiments. Ideas that are unpopular today can only become more popular in the future if we continue to raise awareness and challenge leaders to do the same. We must also support towns and cities who are willing to try this approach and elevate their stories because people will believe it can be done if they see it for themselves. So sure, Obama may have been right about this election, but for change we can believe in, we cannot stop using these snappy slogans.

Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Irrelevant Questions: Are Professional Teams More Likely to Win a Championship if Their Home State Voted for the President?

In an exercise of correlation not causation, I wanted to see if there were any presidents who acted as lucky charms or as jinxes for the states that voted for them. To narrow the analysis, I focused solely on champions in the National Football League (NFL), National Basketball Association (NBA), National Hockey League (NHL), and Major League Baseball (MLB). I also started with the first Super Bowl and based on it on the winner in a given year rather than for the season. For example, the first Super Bowl was in 1967 as part of the 1966-1967 season, so I assumed that the year in question is 1967. The following were the Presidents during that time:

  • Lyndon B. Johnson
  • Richard Nixon
  • Gerald Ford - Editor's note: Since Nixon resigned in 1974, I decided to say Ford was the active president for the 1975 and 1976 years, but used Nixon's electoral win in 1972 as the baseline. This is despite Ford not being on the Nixon ticket in 1972.
  • Jimmy Carter
  • Ronald Reagan
  • George H.W. Bush
  • Bill Clinton
  • George W. Bush
  • Barack Obama
  • Donald Trump
Here were the results:

# of Champs in States that voted for the President of the given year

Before we highlight some clear gaps in this analysis, let's look at what we can find:
  • Barack Obama seemed to be a lucky charm for states that voted for him, as teams in those states won 27 out of the 32 possible titles (or 84.38% success rate). He was followed by Ford, Johnson (both 75%), and Reagan (71.88%). Obama is also the only president where teams across all sports wont more than 50% of the time.
  • Donald Trump seemed to be a jinx for states that voted for him, as teams in those states won 6 out of the possible 16 titles (or 37.25% success rate). He was followed by GW Bush (38.54%) and Nixon (41.67%)
  • Baseball teams seemed to benefit most from the boost, winning 35 out of the 53 possible titles (66.04%). Hockey seemed to benefit the least, winning only 28 out of the 53 possible titles (52.83%)
  • The Democrat vs. Republican spread is most pronounced in baseball (spread of 32.59%), where baseball teams in states that voted for the Democrat president won 18 out of 21 years (85.71%) vs. baseball teams in states that voted for the Republican president won 17 out of 32 years (53.13%). It is followed by hockey (27.56%), football (15.06%), and basketball (1.14%).
There are some obvious gaps:
  1. The number of teams, the team locations, and the state's voting results change, so there's no clear normalization in this analysis.
  2. Especially in more recent years (after 2000), there has become a clear urban vs. rural divide when it comes to voting. This means more states with major league teams would tend to vote for Democrats.
  3. There are a significant number of Canadian teams in the NHL as well as smattering of Canadian teams in the NBA and MLB. Provinces in Canada obviously do not vote for Presidents.
I tried to normalize the results further by looking at the number of teams in any given year that are in a state that voted for the President vs. the total number of teams, giving everyone an equal chance of winning the championship. I also looked at the average number of votes received from the electoral college. Using these, I was tried to normalize the "luck" vs. the "charm".

% of champions vs. % of teams that voted for the President

This margin analysis provides some interesting insight.
  • Obama is the only president where the % of champions was higher than the % of teams (with a fairly significant margin of ~16%).
  • All other presidents saw underperformances, but GW Bush actually had the best underperformance (margin of -3%) as there were fewer teams in states that voted for him compared to other presidents. This likely coincides with the fact that GW Bush had the lowest average electoral college totals (excluding Ford) for the Presidents listed.
  • Nixon saw the greatest underperformance (margin of -17%).
Percentage points per Electoral College vote

Looking at the percentage points / electoral college votes, we see a similar trend. Obama had the highest performance for each Electoral College vote (24.2 points per electoral college vote) while Nixon had the worst (10.2 points per electoral college vote). Interestingly, Republicans had fewer electoral college points compared to the Democrats. 

What does this mean under a Biden presidency?

Using the average margin vs. % of teams (and no changes in teams in the leagues) as well as the average percentage points per Electoral College vote for Democratic presidents, we would expect 9 of the eventual 16 champions to come from states that voted for Biden. Using Obama's margin (which seems fitting as Biden was Obama's VP) and his percentage points per Electoral College vote for Democratic presidents, that goes up to 12 out of 16 teams. Since baseball seems to be the Democrats strong suit, I'd expect a Democratic state to win the World Series next year (bad news Braves and Rays fans, good news Dodgers, Yankees, Padres, and White Sox fans!). Generally, the first year for Democrat presidents is the worst (both Carter and Clinton went 1-4 in their first year as President), but I'll give Biden a bit of an Obama boost and say that the NBA champ will also be from a Democratic state. I think the Super Bowl champ and the Stanley Cup champ in 2021 will be from a Republican state. Does this mean anything and should you gamble using this information? No! But if it works out...who knows.