Oscar Predictions Updated

With the announcement of the SAGs, the Oscars face some new competition. The Help has elevated its chances with a Best Cast win, and one of its stars, Viola Davis, took the SAG award for Best Actress along with Octavia Spencer, winning a SAG for Best Supporting Actress. The biggest surprise was Jean Dujardin, getting noticed for his work in The Artist. Here are the updated predictions.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Bridesmaids and The Artist deserve to get some serious cred, but I think that these two are locked in for now. Moneyball, and Aaron Sorkin, could spoil the Adapted Screenplay race.
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
With the SAG award, Spencer is the one to beat. She will hear her name come Oscar night.
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
As is the usual, Best Supporting Actor and Actress are determined well before the Oscar ceremony. Plummer gets a deserving win for a long and illustrious career.
Best Actress: Viola Davis, The Help
Despite losing the Golden Globe, Davis bounced back with a SAG win. Meryl Streep always deserves to be recognized, but it's Davis' time right now.
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Clooney seems to be unstoppable, but I learned that you should never go against the guild. The SAGs will go 4 for 4 at the Oscar ceremony.
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Remember how David Fincher should have won last year? He lost to DGA winner Tom Hooper. Expect Hazanavicius to follow suit.
Best Picture: The Artist
They may have lost the SAG, but the SAG has never been the best decider of the Best Picture. With wins for Dujardin and Hazanavicius, The Artist caps a winning night with the top prize.

Oscar Predictions 2012

There were many surprises and snubs in this year's Oscar nominees. Michael Fassbender snubbed for Shame, but his snub led to a surprise (first-time) nomination for Gary Oldman. Albert Brooks, who was Drive's most likely nomination, was snubbed as well. But it is not a matter of snubs and surprises, though those were the three that most shocked me. Here are my predictions for the Oscars.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
The Descendants strengthens its Oscars push by taking the Adapted Screenplay, and Woody Allen makes a triumphant return to the Oscars with his highest grossing film yet.
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
While co-star Jessica Chastain could take this award as the "It"-girl of the year, Spencer will ride all of the momentum from the Globes, SAG, and BAFTA wins to an Academy Award.
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
With Albert Brooks out of the race (though he was becoming more of an afterthought), the award certainly goes to Plummer. Anything else would be shocking to say the least.
Best Actress: Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep may be a revelation as Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady, but she will be weighed down by a under-performing movie on the whole. Davis rides The Help's relative success in awards season to here first Academy Award, making Streep 2-16 at the Oscars.
Best Actor: Brad Pitt, Moneyball
George Clooney and Pitt are neck and neck right now. Clooney has his award, and with Pitt "retiring" in 3 years, I highly doubt the very political Oscars will shun Pitt any further. He takes his first Academy Award.
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Despite making his best movies 25-40 years ago, Scorsese takes his second Best Director win for his cleanest film to date.
Best Picture: The Artist
Despite missing out on most of the big-time categories, The Artist, despite losing the SAG to The Help and facing a strong push from The Descendants, ride a BAFTA win to Oscar glory. Cue the dog.