Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Woody Allen has seemed like a surefire lock for Midnight in Paris, while Alexander Payne and his team seemed to be fighting off Moneyball and Hugo. But it looks like, after the Writer's Awards, we have our two Screenplay winners.
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation
It got nominated for a high profile category (Screenplay) and won the Golden Globe. With The Skin I Live In not nominated, this seems to be the heavy favorite in this category.
Best Documentary Feature: Pina
There were certainly better documentaries this year, but given the death of subject Pina Bausch mid-filming, it seems only appropriate to dedicate this win for her legacy.
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
She's been sweeping up through the major award ceremonies. It would take a miracle to beat her.
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, The Help
See above.
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
I will be wavering about this one for the next week or so. Streep somehow pulled off the BAFTA win, even though Viola Davis had a lot of momentum from her win at the SAGs. But if the British Academy can award Streep's controversial portrayal of former P.M. Margaret Thatcher, maybe the Academy can as well. The BAFTAs are also a better predictor for the Oscars given the overlap between voters in the British Academy and the Academy.
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
This is long from a foregone conclusion. But it seemed that George Clooney had this award all wrapped up. But after winning the SAG and the BAFTA, Dujardin is the clear favorite. Coupled with the tremendous momentum of The Artist along with the steady decline of The Descendants and Clooney's previous win for Syriana, it appears that Dujardin will be awarded the Oscar.
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
He won the Directors Guild Award. He won the BAFTA. The Artist is the most-awarded and talked about movie right now. Chalk up another win for The Artist.
Best Picture: The Artist
After taking home the BAFTA and gaining awards for its youthful director and charming lead actor along the way, The Artist looks like the silent movie that could. The Help, Hugo, and The Descendants still can upset The Artist, but it looks like silence is, well, golden.
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Oscar Predictions Updated
With the announcement of the SAGs, the Oscars face some new competition. The Help has elevated its chances with a Best Cast win, and one of its stars, Viola Davis, took the SAG award for Best Actress along with Octavia Spencer, winning a SAG for Best Supporting Actress. The biggest surprise was Jean Dujardin, getting noticed for his work in The Artist. Here are the updated predictions.
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Bridesmaids and The Artist deserve to get some serious cred, but I think that these two are locked in for now. Moneyball, and Aaron Sorkin, could spoil the Adapted Screenplay race.
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
With the SAG award, Spencer is the one to beat. She will hear her name come Oscar night.
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
As is the usual, Best Supporting Actor and Actress are determined well before the Oscar ceremony. Plummer gets a deserving win for a long and illustrious career.
Best Actress: Viola Davis, The Help
Despite losing the Golden Globe, Davis bounced back with a SAG win. Meryl Streep always deserves to be recognized, but it's Davis' time right now.
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Clooney seems to be unstoppable, but I learned that you should never go against the guild. The SAGs will go 4 for 4 at the Oscar ceremony.
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Remember how David Fincher should have won last year? He lost to DGA winner Tom Hooper. Expect Hazanavicius to follow suit.
Best Picture: The Artist
They may have lost the SAG, but the SAG has never been the best decider of the Best Picture. With wins for Dujardin and Hazanavicius, The Artist caps a winning night with the top prize.
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Bridesmaids and The Artist deserve to get some serious cred, but I think that these two are locked in for now. Moneyball, and Aaron Sorkin, could spoil the Adapted Screenplay race.
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
With the SAG award, Spencer is the one to beat. She will hear her name come Oscar night.
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
As is the usual, Best Supporting Actor and Actress are determined well before the Oscar ceremony. Plummer gets a deserving win for a long and illustrious career.
Best Actress: Viola Davis, The Help
Despite losing the Golden Globe, Davis bounced back with a SAG win. Meryl Streep always deserves to be recognized, but it's Davis' time right now.
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Clooney seems to be unstoppable, but I learned that you should never go against the guild. The SAGs will go 4 for 4 at the Oscar ceremony.
Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Remember how David Fincher should have won last year? He lost to DGA winner Tom Hooper. Expect Hazanavicius to follow suit.
Best Picture: The Artist
They may have lost the SAG, but the SAG has never been the best decider of the Best Picture. With wins for Dujardin and Hazanavicius, The Artist caps a winning night with the top prize.
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Oscar Predictions 2012
There were many surprises and snubs in this year's Oscar nominees. Michael Fassbender snubbed for Shame, but his snub led to a surprise (first-time) nomination for Gary Oldman. Albert Brooks, who was Drive's most likely nomination, was snubbed as well. But it is not a matter of snubs and surprises, though those were the three that most shocked me. Here are my predictions for the Oscars.
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
The Descendants strengthens its Oscars push by taking the Adapted Screenplay, and Woody Allen makes a triumphant return to the Oscars with his highest grossing film yet.
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
While co-star Jessica Chastain could take this award as the "It"-girl of the year, Spencer will ride all of the momentum from the Globes, SAG, and BAFTA wins to an Academy Award.
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
With Albert Brooks out of the race (though he was becoming more of an afterthought), the award certainly goes to Plummer. Anything else would be shocking to say the least.
Best Actress: Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep may be a revelation as Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady, but she will be weighed down by a under-performing movie on the whole. Davis rides The Help's relative success in awards season to here first Academy Award, making Streep 2-16 at the Oscars.
Best Actor: Brad Pitt, Moneyball
George Clooney and Pitt are neck and neck right now. Clooney has his award, and with Pitt "retiring" in 3 years, I highly doubt the very political Oscars will shun Pitt any further. He takes his first Academy Award.
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Despite making his best movies 25-40 years ago, Scorsese takes his second Best Director win for his cleanest film to date.
Best Picture: The Artist
Despite missing out on most of the big-time categories, The Artist, despite losing the SAG to The Help and facing a strong push from The Descendants, ride a BAFTA win to Oscar glory. Cue the dog.
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
The Descendants strengthens its Oscars push by taking the Adapted Screenplay, and Woody Allen makes a triumphant return to the Oscars with his highest grossing film yet.
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
While co-star Jessica Chastain could take this award as the "It"-girl of the year, Spencer will ride all of the momentum from the Globes, SAG, and BAFTA wins to an Academy Award.
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
With Albert Brooks out of the race (though he was becoming more of an afterthought), the award certainly goes to Plummer. Anything else would be shocking to say the least.
Best Actress: Viola Davis, The Help
Meryl Streep may be a revelation as Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady, but she will be weighed down by a under-performing movie on the whole. Davis rides The Help's relative success in awards season to here first Academy Award, making Streep 2-16 at the Oscars.
Best Actor: Brad Pitt, Moneyball
George Clooney and Pitt are neck and neck right now. Clooney has his award, and with Pitt "retiring" in 3 years, I highly doubt the very political Oscars will shun Pitt any further. He takes his first Academy Award.
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Despite making his best movies 25-40 years ago, Scorsese takes his second Best Director win for his cleanest film to date.
Best Picture: The Artist
Despite missing out on most of the big-time categories, The Artist, despite losing the SAG to The Help and facing a strong push from The Descendants, ride a BAFTA win to Oscar glory. Cue the dog.
Friday, April 15, 2011
NBA Playoff Predictions
So the NBA playoffs start tomorrow, so I'm going to do a series by series coverage of whom I think will win, key factors in each game, and how long the series will last.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #8 Indiana Pacers
The Chicago Bulls have this series in the bag. The Indiana Pacers are not a good enough defensive team to contain Derrick Rose. The Bulls have the advantage on offense, defense, bench play, coaching, and intangibles. The Bulls' success will likely hinge on if the Bulls can contain the offensively minded Pacers, which they have done in the past. The Pacers' success will hinge on whether they can injure Derrick Rose without incurring the wrath of the entirety of Chicago. The key match up will be between Danny Granger and Luol Deng. Granger can be one of the best scorers in the NBA, but Deng is one of the best defensive players on the Bulls. Watch for him, and Ronnie Brewer (another superb one-on-one defender), to contain Granger. Bulls win in 4.
#2 Miami Heat vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers
The Miami Heat are also clear favorites in the match up on star power alone. But the 76ers are a good defensive team with a stronger bench than the Heat. Andre Igoudala can match up defensively against either Dwyane Wade or LeBron James, and the pair of Elton Brand and Thaddeus Young should be interesting for the Miami Heat. But James, Wade, and Chris Bosh will be too much. The key for Miami will be bench play, as it typically is. The key for Philadelphia is containing the Big Three. The key match up is Iguodala and James/Wade. Iguodala is a great defender, but Wade and James both can put up monster stats against even the best of teams. Miami wins in 5.
#3 Boston Celtics vs. #6 New York Knicks
People have been down on Boston as of late and up on the Knicks because of recent play. Boston is looking their age while the Knicks seem to have finally integrated Carmelo Anthony into their offense. Boston is the favorite in this match up based on sheer experience, though the Knicks do have battle-tested guard Chauncey Billups on their side. The key for the Celtics is health. The Celtics need either of the O'Neals (Jermaine or Shaq) to be healthy in order to really put a strain on the very offensive-minded Knicks. The key for the Knicks is defense. The Knicks are all about offense, a trademark of Mike D'Antoni's coaching style. But with the defense that the Celtics have, the Knicks will need to toughen up on that side. The key match up is Kevin Garnett and Amare Stoudemire. If Stoudemire can get hot, he can start opening up outside play from players like Toney Douglas and Landry Fields. But the offense must run through Stoudemire, not Anthony, for the Knicks to have success. But he will be guarded by Kevin Garnett, one of the stingiest and best defenders in the league not named Howard. Celtics win in 5.
#4 Orlando Magic vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks own the regular season record over the Magic, but I still favor the Magic in this match up, though neither team is really superb. The Magic are still working out a chemistry between their new players, though Jason Richardson has been great as of late. It is primarily Gilbert Arenas who draws concern because of his inconsistency on the court. The Hawks are just trying to make it to a seventh game, having digressed a lot since the last year. The key for the Magic is to hit their 3-point shots. This team shoots a lot of 3-point shots despite having the best center in the league. So if they are going to shoot the 3, they better make it. The key for the Hawks is getting your scorers involved. After signing a huge contract, Joe Johnson has underachieved and will need a brilliant postseason to redeem himself. The key match up is Dwight Howard versus whomever the Hawks put on him. If Derrick Rose is MVP, Howard is a very close second. He changes the game on both ends of the court, as long as he is not on the stripe. If the Hawks contain Howard, they will win the series. But if they let Howard run free, Orlando will have its way. Magic in 7.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 San Antonio Spurs vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies
This is not as outmatched as a typical #1 v. #8 match-up. The Grizzlies have been very good against the Spurs, but the Grizzlies are without Rudy Gay. The Spurs will also be without Manu Ginobili. The key for the Spurs is coaching. Gregg Poppovich is one of the best coaches ever, and with an aging team with waning talent, he will have to outcoach Lionel Hollins, which is no short task. The key for the Grizzlies is regaining the scoring lost from Gay's injury. Sam Young has been good as of late, and O.J. Mayo adds some very good scoring off the bench. But will it be good enough for the strong Spurs defense? The key match up is Zach Randolph versus Tim Duncan. Randolph is the younger and more talented of the two, but there are few power forwards as seasoned in the playoffs as Tim Duncan. Duncan is also a proven winner, while Randolph is still growing into his new mature role on a team. Spurs win in 6.
#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets
As good as Chris Paul is, he is not nearly good enough to beat the Los Angeles Lakers. If the Bulls v. Pacers game is the most uneven, this comes in second. The Hornets will not have their best post presence in David West, and even with West, they were a weak playoff team. Chris Paul is a game changer, but he is having a career low season. The Lakers are trying to defend their crown, so they will be playing with extreme tenacity. Also add the playoff experience of Phil Jackson, Derek Fisher, and Kobe Bryant, and you have a recipe for success. The key for the Lakers is perimeter defense. Without West commanding the middle, the Hornets will look for more opportunities from the perimeter, which can be made through Paul. The key for the Hornets is to establish a post presence. No perimeter game succeeds without a significant post presence, so Emeka Okafor will be important to the success of the Hornets. The key match up is between Okafor and Pau Gasol. If Gasol can keep Okafor in check, the Lakers can shut down the interior game, forcing them to go outside, where their defense can thus take over. Lakers win in 4.
#3 Dallas Mavericks vs. #6 Portland Trail Blazers
The Mavericks are underachievers in the playoffs and the Trail Blazers are a young team looking for some momentum to build upon next year. This is very blunt and flawed, but it covers the teams very well. The Mavericks are an amazing team, but always seem to have problems in the playoffs (see: Golden State Warriors, Miami Heat). But with Nowitzki playing some of his best basketball, that all may change. But the Trail Blazers also are playing amazingly well behind some great play by LaMarcus Aldridge. The key for the Mavericks is Jason Kidd. Kidd is one of the best point guards to play the game. They should let him lead, but allow the offense to run through Nowitzki. The key for the Trail Blazers is their wing players. Brandon Roy is a game changer when healthy, but they have other strong players like Nicolas Batum, Rudy Fernandez, and newly acquired Gerald Wallace. If they can get those wing men slashing and grinding, they can get Aldridge better looks at the basket. The key match up is Tyson Chandler/Marcus Camby versus LaMarcus Aldridge/Dirk Nowitzki. They both have great defensive centers who will most likely be matched against their opponent's starting power forward. Both players can post up and hit the long jumper, though Aldridge is stronger and Nowitzki is more accurate. This dynamic will be key throughout the series. Trail Blazers win in 7.
#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #5 Denver Nuggets
This will be the most interesting match up of the first round, essentially pinning two very equally matched teams against each other. The center match up is going to be interesting, pegging Nene, a great post player, against Kendrick Perkins, one of the best post defenders in the game. The key for the Thunder is Russell Westbrook. Kevin Durant will find ways to score, but to beat a versatile Nuggets team, Westbrook will have to be Durant's second fiddle. The key for the Nuggets is sharing the ball. They have been winning because they have so many good weapons. Wilson Chandler, Kenyon Martin, Nene Hilario, Danilo Gallinari, Ty Lawton, and Raymond Felton are all great players who can make good contributions. The key match up is Kevin Durant versus whomever Denver throws his way. Arron Afflalo is one of their better defenders, but he is a tad undersized. Chris Andersen would be another good defender, but he does not play as well on the perimeter. Finding the right guard for Durant will be difficult and may determine the outcome of the series. Thunder win in 6.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #8 Indiana Pacers
The Chicago Bulls have this series in the bag. The Indiana Pacers are not a good enough defensive team to contain Derrick Rose. The Bulls have the advantage on offense, defense, bench play, coaching, and intangibles. The Bulls' success will likely hinge on if the Bulls can contain the offensively minded Pacers, which they have done in the past. The Pacers' success will hinge on whether they can injure Derrick Rose without incurring the wrath of the entirety of Chicago. The key match up will be between Danny Granger and Luol Deng. Granger can be one of the best scorers in the NBA, but Deng is one of the best defensive players on the Bulls. Watch for him, and Ronnie Brewer (another superb one-on-one defender), to contain Granger. Bulls win in 4.
#2 Miami Heat vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers
The Miami Heat are also clear favorites in the match up on star power alone. But the 76ers are a good defensive team with a stronger bench than the Heat. Andre Igoudala can match up defensively against either Dwyane Wade or LeBron James, and the pair of Elton Brand and Thaddeus Young should be interesting for the Miami Heat. But James, Wade, and Chris Bosh will be too much. The key for Miami will be bench play, as it typically is. The key for Philadelphia is containing the Big Three. The key match up is Iguodala and James/Wade. Iguodala is a great defender, but Wade and James both can put up monster stats against even the best of teams. Miami wins in 5.
#3 Boston Celtics vs. #6 New York Knicks
People have been down on Boston as of late and up on the Knicks because of recent play. Boston is looking their age while the Knicks seem to have finally integrated Carmelo Anthony into their offense. Boston is the favorite in this match up based on sheer experience, though the Knicks do have battle-tested guard Chauncey Billups on their side. The key for the Celtics is health. The Celtics need either of the O'Neals (Jermaine or Shaq) to be healthy in order to really put a strain on the very offensive-minded Knicks. The key for the Knicks is defense. The Knicks are all about offense, a trademark of Mike D'Antoni's coaching style. But with the defense that the Celtics have, the Knicks will need to toughen up on that side. The key match up is Kevin Garnett and Amare Stoudemire. If Stoudemire can get hot, he can start opening up outside play from players like Toney Douglas and Landry Fields. But the offense must run through Stoudemire, not Anthony, for the Knicks to have success. But he will be guarded by Kevin Garnett, one of the stingiest and best defenders in the league not named Howard. Celtics win in 5.
#4 Orlando Magic vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks own the regular season record over the Magic, but I still favor the Magic in this match up, though neither team is really superb. The Magic are still working out a chemistry between their new players, though Jason Richardson has been great as of late. It is primarily Gilbert Arenas who draws concern because of his inconsistency on the court. The Hawks are just trying to make it to a seventh game, having digressed a lot since the last year. The key for the Magic is to hit their 3-point shots. This team shoots a lot of 3-point shots despite having the best center in the league. So if they are going to shoot the 3, they better make it. The key for the Hawks is getting your scorers involved. After signing a huge contract, Joe Johnson has underachieved and will need a brilliant postseason to redeem himself. The key match up is Dwight Howard versus whomever the Hawks put on him. If Derrick Rose is MVP, Howard is a very close second. He changes the game on both ends of the court, as long as he is not on the stripe. If the Hawks contain Howard, they will win the series. But if they let Howard run free, Orlando will have its way. Magic in 7.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 San Antonio Spurs vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies
This is not as outmatched as a typical #1 v. #8 match-up. The Grizzlies have been very good against the Spurs, but the Grizzlies are without Rudy Gay. The Spurs will also be without Manu Ginobili. The key for the Spurs is coaching. Gregg Poppovich is one of the best coaches ever, and with an aging team with waning talent, he will have to outcoach Lionel Hollins, which is no short task. The key for the Grizzlies is regaining the scoring lost from Gay's injury. Sam Young has been good as of late, and O.J. Mayo adds some very good scoring off the bench. But will it be good enough for the strong Spurs defense? The key match up is Zach Randolph versus Tim Duncan. Randolph is the younger and more talented of the two, but there are few power forwards as seasoned in the playoffs as Tim Duncan. Duncan is also a proven winner, while Randolph is still growing into his new mature role on a team. Spurs win in 6.
#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets
As good as Chris Paul is, he is not nearly good enough to beat the Los Angeles Lakers. If the Bulls v. Pacers game is the most uneven, this comes in second. The Hornets will not have their best post presence in David West, and even with West, they were a weak playoff team. Chris Paul is a game changer, but he is having a career low season. The Lakers are trying to defend their crown, so they will be playing with extreme tenacity. Also add the playoff experience of Phil Jackson, Derek Fisher, and Kobe Bryant, and you have a recipe for success. The key for the Lakers is perimeter defense. Without West commanding the middle, the Hornets will look for more opportunities from the perimeter, which can be made through Paul. The key for the Hornets is to establish a post presence. No perimeter game succeeds without a significant post presence, so Emeka Okafor will be important to the success of the Hornets. The key match up is between Okafor and Pau Gasol. If Gasol can keep Okafor in check, the Lakers can shut down the interior game, forcing them to go outside, where their defense can thus take over. Lakers win in 4.
#3 Dallas Mavericks vs. #6 Portland Trail Blazers
The Mavericks are underachievers in the playoffs and the Trail Blazers are a young team looking for some momentum to build upon next year. This is very blunt and flawed, but it covers the teams very well. The Mavericks are an amazing team, but always seem to have problems in the playoffs (see: Golden State Warriors, Miami Heat). But with Nowitzki playing some of his best basketball, that all may change. But the Trail Blazers also are playing amazingly well behind some great play by LaMarcus Aldridge. The key for the Mavericks is Jason Kidd. Kidd is one of the best point guards to play the game. They should let him lead, but allow the offense to run through Nowitzki. The key for the Trail Blazers is their wing players. Brandon Roy is a game changer when healthy, but they have other strong players like Nicolas Batum, Rudy Fernandez, and newly acquired Gerald Wallace. If they can get those wing men slashing and grinding, they can get Aldridge better looks at the basket. The key match up is Tyson Chandler/Marcus Camby versus LaMarcus Aldridge/Dirk Nowitzki. They both have great defensive centers who will most likely be matched against their opponent's starting power forward. Both players can post up and hit the long jumper, though Aldridge is stronger and Nowitzki is more accurate. This dynamic will be key throughout the series. Trail Blazers win in 7.
#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #5 Denver Nuggets
This will be the most interesting match up of the first round, essentially pinning two very equally matched teams against each other. The center match up is going to be interesting, pegging Nene, a great post player, against Kendrick Perkins, one of the best post defenders in the game. The key for the Thunder is Russell Westbrook. Kevin Durant will find ways to score, but to beat a versatile Nuggets team, Westbrook will have to be Durant's second fiddle. The key for the Nuggets is sharing the ball. They have been winning because they have so many good weapons. Wilson Chandler, Kenyon Martin, Nene Hilario, Danilo Gallinari, Ty Lawton, and Raymond Felton are all great players who can make good contributions. The key match up is Kevin Durant versus whomever Denver throws his way. Arron Afflalo is one of their better defenders, but he is a tad undersized. Chris Andersen would be another good defender, but he does not play as well on the perimeter. Finding the right guard for Durant will be difficult and may determine the outcome of the series. Thunder win in 6.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)