For those following the elections (not just the Biden-Trump one), you'll see a common theme. The Democrats may have won the Presidency, but they didn't have the same success down-ballot. Representative Abigail Spanberger VA-7 was purported to have vehemently stated her concerns about the "socialist" tilt of the Democrat party. Representative Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez NY-14 (AOC for her supporters, Rep. Ocasio-Cortez for her haters) tweeted the following:
Every single swing-seat House Democrat who endorsed #MedicareForAll won re-election or is on track to win re-election.
— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) November 7, 2020
Every.👏🏽 Single.👏🏽 One.👏🏽
While this is factually true (the seven Democrat representatives in GOP-leaning districts who co-sponsored Medicare for All or HR 1384 won re-election), I wanted to see if there were additional measurables that captured the impact of M4A and the other big-ticket progressive bill (the Green New Deal) for the House of Representatives.
Medicare for All
There were seven Democrats that co-sponsored Medicare for All that were in GOP-leaning or toss-up districts (the Cook Partisan Voting Index in parentheses):
- Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in AZ-02 (R+1)
- Rep. Josh Harder in CA-10 (EVEN)
- Rep. Katie Porter in CA-45 (R+3)
- Rep. Mike Levin in CA-49 (R+1)
- Rep. Jared Golden in ME-02 (R+2)
- Rep. Peter DeFazio in OR-04 (EVEN)
- Rep. Matt Cartwright in PA-08 (R+1)
All seven representatives won re-election and as-of now, no co-sponsor for Medicare for All has lost their re-election bid.
The eight seats that have been flipped so far on the Democrat side were all representatives who did not co-sponsor Medicare for All. While some seats were in Democrat-leaning districts (such as FL-26 and FL-27), the seats in GOP-leaning districts were much more heavily GOP-leaning. The districts as-of now were:
- MN-07 (R+12)
- NM-06 (R+6)
- OK-05 (R+10)
- SC-01 (R+10)
This leads to the question: did Medicare for All really help the candidates in these districts or were there other factors that supported these candidates' re-election campaigns?
To analyze this, I focused on the margins of victory for those who supported Medicare for All vs. those who did not, looking primarily at candidates in districts with a PVI of 0 or R+. I plotted the margin between the next closest competitor in 2018 vs. 2020 on a scatter plot. Everything to the left of the dotted line represented an improvement from 2018 to 2020:
The orange diamonds represent those that supported M4A. Four of the seven representatives (57%) that supported M4A saw an improvement in their margin between 2018 and 2020 compared to four of the thirty-four representatives (12%) saw an improvement in the margin.
I also looked at the change in margin between 2018 and 2020. The average change in margin between 2018 and 2020 for these representatives was -3.1 points (6.4 points in 2018 to 3.3 points in 2020). For those that supported M4A, the average change in margin was -0.3 points (. For those that did not support M4A, the average change in margin dropped to -3.7 points.
When weighting for the % of vote reporting per the New York Times, the weighted change in margin (change in margin * % of reported vote) is -2.8 points. For those that supported M4A, the weighted average change in margin was -0.6 points. For those that did not support M4A, the weighted average change in margin was -3.3 points.
Note that those that supported M4A did have a higher starting margin in 2018 by approximately 2 points, but overall, those that supported M4A performed significantly better than those that did not:
So what does this mean for the Green New Deal?
The Green New Deal is a significantly different matter. For one thing, two of the big pieces of the GOP plan coming into the primary revolved around the updated tax plan and, more relevantly, the attempted repeal of Obamacare. Many of the representatives in the blue wave may have been expected to deliver landmark healthcare for their constituents and the support, or perceived lack thereof, for nationalized healthcare may have buoyed or cratered the representatives' campaigns.
Additionally, polling for the two ideas have different levels. Per Figure 7 of the following link from the Kaiser Family Foundation, 56% of people surveyed have a favorable view to Medicare for All. The Kaiser Family Foundation also published a study on the Green New Deal (albeit in 2019), and for those who have heard of the Green New Deal, only 36% supported it. While this is only a single, unvetted data point, there is discrepancy on how popular each of these proposals are.
Practically, one co-sponsor of the Green New Deal (Rep. Debbi Murcarsel-Powell of FL-26) has already lost re-elction and another co-sponsor (Rep. Thomas Suozzi of NY-03) is facing a challenge from his GOP opponent. So the Green New Deal has not had the same effect as Medicare for All has had to-date. That does not mean the more progressive idea is inherently bad politically; an argument can be made that Sen. Ed Markey was able to fight off a primary challenge from Rep. Joe Kennedy in part for his sponsorship of the Green New Deal. But there may need to be more concrete benefits for constituents before the Green New Deal becomes a viable option up and down the Democratic party.
What can Democrats learn?
It is clear that the Democrats are at an impasse. With a loss of seats in the House and a Sen. McConnell-led Senate (unless both GA senate candidates win their runoff elections), Democrats will be hard-pressed to pass meaningful legislation even with a President-Elect Joe Biden at the helm. Making this even harder is the wide political spectrum in the Democratic party. In the Senate, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) represents the leftists, while senators like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Sen. Joe Tester (D-MT) who are both in GOP-leaning states represent centrist views. And in the House, you have Rep. Ocasio-Cortez and Rep. Spanberger on two differing sides of the argument. A strictly progressive agenda may be a pipe dream, but there are clearly progressive ideas that have support from the American people. If there's anything to take from this, it is this: Medicare for All can and in my opinion should be a centerpiece for the 2022 primaries, even if President-Elect Biden is able to get the public option passed.
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