With the Eastern Conference Finals in full blow, we take our tour down to Dallas, where tomorrow will be the start of the Western Conference Finals between #3 Dallas Mavericks and #4 Oklahoma City Thunder.
Center: Tyson Chandler vs. Kendrick Perkins
Contrary to popular belief, the Perkins trade helped the Thunder not because of Perkins' presence, but because of Serge Ibaka's new role in the offense and defense. I am not taking anything away from Perkins because it was a great trade for the Thunder. It is a great trade for different reasons. Both Chandler and Perkins are defensive and rebounding specialists. Both are very good on the offensive and defensive glass, but they are also limited offensively. Chandler has the athletic edge, but Perkins has the strength. Advantage: Draw
Power Forward: Dirk Nowitzki vs. Serge Ibaka
Ibaka has been a revelation. He has good range on his jump shot, can rebound very well on both sides of the floor, and is a blocking machine. Unfortunately, he has to line up across from the best power forward in the game right now (arguably). Nowitzki has been a nightmare to guard, and though Ibaka will need help, Nowitzki can beat most players. He has a soft touch from the outside, is very difficult to guard in the high pick and roll, and commands too much attention to be left even the slightest bit open. Advantage: Dallas
Small Forward: Shawn Marion vs. Kevin Durant
Marion used to be a feared double-double threat. He is a good defender that can run in transition. But he has yet to cover as dynamic of a scorer as Durant. Durant has one of the sweetest touches from the outside, and he is strong enough and fast enough to burn you on the inside. He does have some holes defensively, but the Thunder run a fast game, which is something where a hot jump shooter like Durant excels. He is good on the glass, and knows when and how to make the extra pass. If only he took the most shots in each game, then the Thunder would be a menace. Advantage: Oklahoma City
Shooting Guard: DeShawn Stevenson vs. Thabo Sefolosha
Granted, the starters aren't nearly as interesting as their respective bench players (Jason Terry and James Harden), but it will be an interesting lineup nonetheless. Stevenson is a shooter with defense. Sefolosha is a hard-nosed defender with some comparable speed. This position will not determine who wins the series, and it really is the most boring and uninteresting position in the starting lineup. Advantage: Draw
Point Guard: Jason Kidd vs. Russell Westbrook
General knowledge says that Westbrook has the advantage here. But I'm going to go against the grain on my choice here. I believe that though Westbrook is faster and a better scorer than Kidd, I think that Kidd will overall have an advantage. Kidd is a good defender (if you doubt that, look at what he did against Kobe Bryant), and will force Westbrook to take shots that he will (but shouldn't) take. Westbrook is too trigger happy with his jumper, especially considering his options on offense. Will Kidd have a difficult time guarding Westbrook? Yes, he will. But Kidd is wily, and with options like Nowitzki, Jason Terry, and Peja Stojakovic on his team, he will be even more deadly as a distributor. Advantage: Dallas
Bench:
The Dallas bench and Oklahoma City bench are both stacked. On the Mavs, you have great scorers like Stojakovic and 2009 Sixth Man of the Year Jason Terry. But, you face a similar problem with the Thunder who have shooters like James Harden and Daequan Cook. On the Mavs, you have a good defender and speedy point guard with J.J. Barea. But on the Thunder, you have an able distributor with a nice touch from beyond the arc with Eric Maynor. The Mavs have a good back up center with Brendan Haywood, but the Thunder counter that with another veteran in Nazr Mohammed. The real wild card is Nick Collison, who will likely have the challenge of guarding Nowitzki. But, these teams have evenly matched benches that are very productive. Advantage: Draw
Coach: Rick Carlisle vs. Scott Brooks
Carlisle has the experience, having been in the conference finals twice. Neither team has truly exceptional offensive or defensive schemes. Experience wins over in this scenario. Advantage: Dallas
Intangibles:
No one is playing as good as Nowitzki (arguably). But Durant can turn it up on any given night. But the Thunder are going to be tired from their last bruising series against the Grizzlies. The Thunder are also under a lot more scrutiny (it seems) compared to the Mavs. Advantage: Dallas
Prediction:
The Thunder have looked unstoppable at times, but they also have horrendous lows. Dallas has been extremely consistent, especially in their spanking of the LA Lakers. Expect them to ride Nowitzki to the NBA Finals. I predict that the Mavericks win this series in 6 and advance to the NBA Finals.
Showing posts with label playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label playoffs. Show all posts
Monday, May 16, 2011
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Eastern Conference Finals Overview
The Eastern Conference has come down to the number 1 seeded Chicago Bulls and the number 2 seeded Miami Heat. On one side, you have a once glorious franchise returning to the top of the conference. On the other side, you have arguably the most polarizing team to play the game. Here's an overview of what could be the most interesting playoff series this year.
Center: Joakim Noah vs. Joel Anthony
Both Noah and Anthony are both hustle players who make plays using determination rather than skill or speed. Both are great defenders and superb rebounders on both the offensive and the defensive end. Where they differ is offensively. Noah is a better offensive player than Anthony. Noah possesses the ability to shoot the jump shot and take the ball off the dribble. He also is better at moving away from the ball. Noah will also run on the fast break more often than Anthony. Advantage: Chicago
Power Forward: Carlos Boozer vs. Chris Bosh
Both Boozer and Bosh are looking to prove something in this series. Boozer is trying to prove to his fans that he can be the number 2 option that Chicago is looking for. Bosh is trying to prove that he is more than a third wheel to the James-Wade party. Both are notorious for their criticism. Bosh has been called soft and inconsistent. Boozer has been called a defensive liability, who has not justified his weakness on one end with strength on the other. But both Boozer and Bosh are very good offensively at times. When their jump shots are falling, they are two of the more feared post players in the game. Boozer has a nice fade away jumper he relies on, and Bosh uses his left handedness to his advantage. Advantage: Draw
Small Forward: Luol Deng vs. LeBron James
This is not as lopsided as it seems. LeBron James is the best player in the NBA. He is too strong to cover and with his jump shot, he can create a shot out of any scenario. He also is one of the better defenders because of his size and speed. He has perfected the art of the chase-down block. But I don't think that James will have easy picking against the Bulls. Luol Deng is one of the best defenders in the game and can force James to take difficult, contested shots. Deng also plays long minutes, so he will have the job of wearing down James. Deng has a good outside jumper and can slash his way to the basket. But when LeBron James is the person you are facing down, it is impossible to have an advantage. Advantage: Miami
Shooting Guard: Keith Bogans vs. Dwyane Wade
This is as lopsided as it seems. Dwyane Wade is one of the most dynamic players in the game. He can make his way to the basket. He can change the game with his jump shot. He and James are feared on the fast break. Bogans takes 3 shots a game on average, all of them from downtown. Bogans, however, will give Wade fits on the defensive end. He did a great job stopping the larger Joe Johnson against the Hawks, so expect him to give Wade fits. But once again, when Dwyane Wade is the person you are facing down, it is impossible to have an advantage. Advantage: Miami
Point Guard: Derrick Rose vs. Mike Bibby
This is another extremely lopsided matchup. Unlike Jeff Teague, Mike Bibby has no speed when compared to Rose. Bibby takes too many shots and is typically the beneficiary of slashing by James or Wade. Derrick Rose, on the other hand, carries the Bulls. He is developing as a passer, and will allow his teammates to try to take over the game. But when he needs to carry the load, Derrick Rose is prepared. He can now stretch teams with a perimeter shot to keep his defenders honest. But when you play Rose too tight, he can beat you off the dribble like no other. If Wade and James are the best slashing shooting guard and small forward respectively, I'd argue that Derrick Rose is the best slashing point guard in the league. His speed allows him to attack the rim at will, and his ability to finish, as well as his pure athleticism, allows him to score on these drives. When Derrick Rose is the person you are facing down, it is very difficult to have an advantage. Advantage: Chicago
Bench:
The Chicago Bulls have filled the bench very well with role players. They have a superb young backup center in Omer Asik. Asik can add some energy with hustle rebounds and blocked shots. They have a starting caliber backup power forward in Taj Gibson. Gibson helps out defensively and can add some offensive help when Boozer is on the bench. Ronnie Brewer is a super defender, and Kyle Korver is one of the best sharpshooters in the game. C.J. Watson can run the plays to give Derrick Rose ample time to rest. Then they have Kurt "Big Sexy" Thomas, who adds some old school defense to the game. The Heat have Mario Chalmers, a defensive point guard, and James Jones, another good 3-point shooter. Everyone else is either a non-factor (Zydrunas Ilgauskas) or recovering from injury (Udonis Haslem). Advantage: Chicago
Coaching: Tom Thibodeau vs. Erik Spoelstra
No offense to Spoelstra, but he really is merely Pat Riley's pawn. When you have LeBron James or Dwyane Wade, drawing up plays is rather easy. He has established a good defense, but once again, that seems to fall under the influence of James and Wade. Spoelstra is very good in the video room at pinpointing where his team needs to improve. Thibodeau, on the other hand, is the defensive mind that was able to stop LeBron James the last two years when he played Boston. He has masterfully crafted a defense that has allowed low field goal percentages and points. Though he does not have an offensive mind near to where his defensive mind is, he is a disciple of the game and lives and breathes basketball. He is in the video room analyzing footage. But most importantly, he got his team to buy into his strategy, and it has worked. Both are relatively new head coaches, but based on where they are with what they have, Thibodeau has seemed to do more with less. Advantage: Chicago
Intangibles:
The Miami Heat have successfully embraced their role as the villain in the NBA. LeBron James (as well as Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh for that matter) has to prove that he made the right decision by spurning the Bulls and creating a Big Three in Miami. The Chicago Bulls have home court advantage. They have the serendipity of having a chance to win a championship 20 years after Jordan's first. They are entering as the underdogs. The Heat have a sense of entitlement, but the Bulls have a sense of urgency. The Bulls are scrappier and defying the odds. The Heat are riding the talent of their two stars. There are too many storylines in this series. Advantage: Draw
Interesting Notes:
-The Chicago Bulls are 3-0 versus the Heat in the regular season. Those three games were won by a total of 8 points.
-Which Kyle Korver will show up? The clutch Kyle Korver from the Indiana series or the struggling Kyle Korver from the Atlanta series?
-Don't expect any big games from James Jones. The Bulls are one of the best perimeter defending teams in the league.
-Mario Chalmers beat Derrick Rose in the 2007 NCAA championship. Can we expect a similar outcome?
-Derrick Rose broke LeBron James' attempt at a three-peat for MVP. Will LeBron James finally win a championship without the burden of being MVP?
-LeBron James beat the Celtics...after Thibodeau was hired as the head coach of the Bulls. Maybe James' biggest enemy is not the Celtics, but their former assistant coach Tom Thibodeau.
-Pat Riley and Gar Forman both won Executive of the Year. John Paxson also received three votes, meaning that the Bulls' executives combined could have won that award.
Prediction:
The Miami Heat are playing amazing basketball, and with two superstars, it is difficult to imagine the less star-studded Bulls to pull off the upset. But the Bulls are a hustle team who looks to outwork you, especially so in the playoffs. I see this as a 7-game-thriller. Bulls will have home court advantage, but Miami's star power will shine and (unfortunately) the Bulls go down in 7 games. Miami advances to the NBA Finals.
Center: Joakim Noah vs. Joel Anthony
Both Noah and Anthony are both hustle players who make plays using determination rather than skill or speed. Both are great defenders and superb rebounders on both the offensive and the defensive end. Where they differ is offensively. Noah is a better offensive player than Anthony. Noah possesses the ability to shoot the jump shot and take the ball off the dribble. He also is better at moving away from the ball. Noah will also run on the fast break more often than Anthony. Advantage: Chicago
Power Forward: Carlos Boozer vs. Chris Bosh
Both Boozer and Bosh are looking to prove something in this series. Boozer is trying to prove to his fans that he can be the number 2 option that Chicago is looking for. Bosh is trying to prove that he is more than a third wheel to the James-Wade party. Both are notorious for their criticism. Bosh has been called soft and inconsistent. Boozer has been called a defensive liability, who has not justified his weakness on one end with strength on the other. But both Boozer and Bosh are very good offensively at times. When their jump shots are falling, they are two of the more feared post players in the game. Boozer has a nice fade away jumper he relies on, and Bosh uses his left handedness to his advantage. Advantage: Draw
Small Forward: Luol Deng vs. LeBron James
This is not as lopsided as it seems. LeBron James is the best player in the NBA. He is too strong to cover and with his jump shot, he can create a shot out of any scenario. He also is one of the better defenders because of his size and speed. He has perfected the art of the chase-down block. But I don't think that James will have easy picking against the Bulls. Luol Deng is one of the best defenders in the game and can force James to take difficult, contested shots. Deng also plays long minutes, so he will have the job of wearing down James. Deng has a good outside jumper and can slash his way to the basket. But when LeBron James is the person you are facing down, it is impossible to have an advantage. Advantage: Miami
Shooting Guard: Keith Bogans vs. Dwyane Wade
This is as lopsided as it seems. Dwyane Wade is one of the most dynamic players in the game. He can make his way to the basket. He can change the game with his jump shot. He and James are feared on the fast break. Bogans takes 3 shots a game on average, all of them from downtown. Bogans, however, will give Wade fits on the defensive end. He did a great job stopping the larger Joe Johnson against the Hawks, so expect him to give Wade fits. But once again, when Dwyane Wade is the person you are facing down, it is impossible to have an advantage. Advantage: Miami
Point Guard: Derrick Rose vs. Mike Bibby
This is another extremely lopsided matchup. Unlike Jeff Teague, Mike Bibby has no speed when compared to Rose. Bibby takes too many shots and is typically the beneficiary of slashing by James or Wade. Derrick Rose, on the other hand, carries the Bulls. He is developing as a passer, and will allow his teammates to try to take over the game. But when he needs to carry the load, Derrick Rose is prepared. He can now stretch teams with a perimeter shot to keep his defenders honest. But when you play Rose too tight, he can beat you off the dribble like no other. If Wade and James are the best slashing shooting guard and small forward respectively, I'd argue that Derrick Rose is the best slashing point guard in the league. His speed allows him to attack the rim at will, and his ability to finish, as well as his pure athleticism, allows him to score on these drives. When Derrick Rose is the person you are facing down, it is very difficult to have an advantage. Advantage: Chicago
Bench:
The Chicago Bulls have filled the bench very well with role players. They have a superb young backup center in Omer Asik. Asik can add some energy with hustle rebounds and blocked shots. They have a starting caliber backup power forward in Taj Gibson. Gibson helps out defensively and can add some offensive help when Boozer is on the bench. Ronnie Brewer is a super defender, and Kyle Korver is one of the best sharpshooters in the game. C.J. Watson can run the plays to give Derrick Rose ample time to rest. Then they have Kurt "Big Sexy" Thomas, who adds some old school defense to the game. The Heat have Mario Chalmers, a defensive point guard, and James Jones, another good 3-point shooter. Everyone else is either a non-factor (Zydrunas Ilgauskas) or recovering from injury (Udonis Haslem). Advantage: Chicago
Coaching: Tom Thibodeau vs. Erik Spoelstra
No offense to Spoelstra, but he really is merely Pat Riley's pawn. When you have LeBron James or Dwyane Wade, drawing up plays is rather easy. He has established a good defense, but once again, that seems to fall under the influence of James and Wade. Spoelstra is very good in the video room at pinpointing where his team needs to improve. Thibodeau, on the other hand, is the defensive mind that was able to stop LeBron James the last two years when he played Boston. He has masterfully crafted a defense that has allowed low field goal percentages and points. Though he does not have an offensive mind near to where his defensive mind is, he is a disciple of the game and lives and breathes basketball. He is in the video room analyzing footage. But most importantly, he got his team to buy into his strategy, and it has worked. Both are relatively new head coaches, but based on where they are with what they have, Thibodeau has seemed to do more with less. Advantage: Chicago
Intangibles:
The Miami Heat have successfully embraced their role as the villain in the NBA. LeBron James (as well as Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh for that matter) has to prove that he made the right decision by spurning the Bulls and creating a Big Three in Miami. The Chicago Bulls have home court advantage. They have the serendipity of having a chance to win a championship 20 years after Jordan's first. They are entering as the underdogs. The Heat have a sense of entitlement, but the Bulls have a sense of urgency. The Bulls are scrappier and defying the odds. The Heat are riding the talent of their two stars. There are too many storylines in this series. Advantage: Draw
Interesting Notes:
-The Chicago Bulls are 3-0 versus the Heat in the regular season. Those three games were won by a total of 8 points.
-Which Kyle Korver will show up? The clutch Kyle Korver from the Indiana series or the struggling Kyle Korver from the Atlanta series?
-Don't expect any big games from James Jones. The Bulls are one of the best perimeter defending teams in the league.
-Mario Chalmers beat Derrick Rose in the 2007 NCAA championship. Can we expect a similar outcome?
-Derrick Rose broke LeBron James' attempt at a three-peat for MVP. Will LeBron James finally win a championship without the burden of being MVP?
-LeBron James beat the Celtics...after Thibodeau was hired as the head coach of the Bulls. Maybe James' biggest enemy is not the Celtics, but their former assistant coach Tom Thibodeau.
-Pat Riley and Gar Forman both won Executive of the Year. John Paxson also received three votes, meaning that the Bulls' executives combined could have won that award.
Prediction:
The Miami Heat are playing amazing basketball, and with two superstars, it is difficult to imagine the less star-studded Bulls to pull off the upset. But the Bulls are a hustle team who looks to outwork you, especially so in the playoffs. I see this as a 7-game-thriller. Bulls will have home court advantage, but Miami's star power will shine and (unfortunately) the Bulls go down in 7 games. Miami advances to the NBA Finals.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Looking At The Second Round of the NBA Playoffs
#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks
This will be the least interesting series of the second round, though it is not without its storylines. Kirk Hinrich, if he's healthy, will get a chance to take a shot at the team he spent 7 years on. But the Bulls are 20 years removed since the first championship of the Jordan era. The key for the Bulls is Carlos Boozer. The Bulls were fortunate that they won the previous series against the Pacers considering how poorly their prized free agent played. He will have to up his game against another long team in the Hawks. The key for the Hawks is Kirk Hinrich. They will need him to be healthy because I doubt that back-up Jeff Teague can cover Derrick Rose. Hinrich is a premier defensive point guard who can give Derrick Rose fits all series long. The key match-up will be Luol Deng/Keith Bogans/Ronnie Brewer vs. Joe Johnson/Jamal Crawford. Johnson and Crawford are elite shooters, but they will be going against very good perimeter defenders. Expect Bogans to cover Crawford and Deng and Brewer to split time against Johnson. Bulls win in 5.
#2 Miami Heat vs. #3 Boston Celtics
This is hands-down the most interesting series in the playoffs. This series may not determine the NBA champion, but it matches two very interesting teams. Will LeBron James finally conquer the Boston curse? Is Boston too old to win another championship? These questions and more will be answered in this series. The key for Miami is post scoring. If Shaq does not play, the Celtics will once again be vulnerable in the post. With Pierce on James and Rondo likely on Wade, expect a tight game on the perimeter. It will be up to Chris Bosh to attack inside against another great defender in Kevin Garnett. The key for Boston is Rajon Rondo. The Miami Heat seem to have an answer for everybody. The Celtics bring Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett. The Heat bring Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh. But the Celtics have All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo, one of the best facilitators in the game. If he gets going early, the Celtics could take control of the series. The key matchup is LeBron James vs. Paul Pierce. I would like to cite Game 7 of the 2008 playoffs. It was watching two superstars trade blows. These are the game changers for each respective team. This will be a very tight series, but I say Celtics win in 7.
#8 Memphis Grizzlies vs. #4 Oklahoma City Thunder
I hate to say that the Grizzlies win against the Spurs was a fluke, but I don't see this going well for the Grizzlies. The Thunder seem to be firing on all cylinders and Kevin Durant is reminding everyone why we all had him as the pre-season MVP. The key for the Grizzlies is Zach Randolph. Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins arebetter younger defenders than Antonio McDyess and Tim Duncan, so Z-Bo won't have the same success. But the game for the Grizzlies must go through the post if they have any chance of upsetting the Thunder. The key for the Thunder is Russell Westbrook. Kevin Durant is a superstar and he will get his shots. But Durant cannot win the series on his own. Westbrook needs to be a good second option for the Thunder, especially because Shane Battier can lock down on Durant. The key match-up is Kendrick Perkins/Serge Ibaka/Nazr Mohammed/Nick Collison vs. Zach Randolph. Zach Randolph is the MVP of the San Antonio and Memphis series, so in order for the Thunder to win, they will have to stop Randolph. I predict that the Thunder win in 6.
#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #3 Dallas Mavericks
This is another interesting matchup. Both teams are very good and well matched. The size up front for the Mavericks can match Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, two intimidating 7 footers. But how do you deal with the Black Mamba? The key for the Lakers is Pau Gasol. Gasol is likely to be matched against Dirk Nowitzki, so it is crucial that he not only keeps Nowitzki from taking over the game, but that he does not get pushed around on offense. The key for the Mavericks is Jason Terry and Jason Kidd. Jason Kidd is one of the best playmakers in the game, so he will have to get his top guns in the game. Jason Terry has to be a big contributor off the bench. The Lakers have Lamar Odom, and in order to lessen the blow of his production, Terry has to play well. The key match-up is whomever guards Bryant (likely Shawn Marion) vs. Kobe Bryant. Kobe Bryant is at his best in the playoffs. In order to have any chance of thinking about winning the series, Bryant has to be limited. The Mavericks have to play him physically. But Kobe Bryant has to trust his teammates, especially Andrew Bynum, who can overpower Tyson Chandler. I predict Lakers in 7.
This will be the least interesting series of the second round, though it is not without its storylines. Kirk Hinrich, if he's healthy, will get a chance to take a shot at the team he spent 7 years on. But the Bulls are 20 years removed since the first championship of the Jordan era. The key for the Bulls is Carlos Boozer. The Bulls were fortunate that they won the previous series against the Pacers considering how poorly their prized free agent played. He will have to up his game against another long team in the Hawks. The key for the Hawks is Kirk Hinrich. They will need him to be healthy because I doubt that back-up Jeff Teague can cover Derrick Rose. Hinrich is a premier defensive point guard who can give Derrick Rose fits all series long. The key match-up will be Luol Deng/Keith Bogans/Ronnie Brewer vs. Joe Johnson/Jamal Crawford. Johnson and Crawford are elite shooters, but they will be going against very good perimeter defenders. Expect Bogans to cover Crawford and Deng and Brewer to split time against Johnson. Bulls win in 5.
#2 Miami Heat vs. #3 Boston Celtics
This is hands-down the most interesting series in the playoffs. This series may not determine the NBA champion, but it matches two very interesting teams. Will LeBron James finally conquer the Boston curse? Is Boston too old to win another championship? These questions and more will be answered in this series. The key for Miami is post scoring. If Shaq does not play, the Celtics will once again be vulnerable in the post. With Pierce on James and Rondo likely on Wade, expect a tight game on the perimeter. It will be up to Chris Bosh to attack inside against another great defender in Kevin Garnett. The key for Boston is Rajon Rondo. The Miami Heat seem to have an answer for everybody. The Celtics bring Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett. The Heat bring Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Chris Bosh. But the Celtics have All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo, one of the best facilitators in the game. If he gets going early, the Celtics could take control of the series. The key matchup is LeBron James vs. Paul Pierce. I would like to cite Game 7 of the 2008 playoffs. It was watching two superstars trade blows. These are the game changers for each respective team. This will be a very tight series, but I say Celtics win in 7.
#8 Memphis Grizzlies vs. #4 Oklahoma City Thunder
I hate to say that the Grizzlies win against the Spurs was a fluke, but I don't see this going well for the Grizzlies. The Thunder seem to be firing on all cylinders and Kevin Durant is reminding everyone why we all had him as the pre-season MVP. The key for the Grizzlies is Zach Randolph. Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins are
#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #3 Dallas Mavericks
This is another interesting matchup. Both teams are very good and well matched. The size up front for the Mavericks can match Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, two intimidating 7 footers. But how do you deal with the Black Mamba? The key for the Lakers is Pau Gasol. Gasol is likely to be matched against Dirk Nowitzki, so it is crucial that he not only keeps Nowitzki from taking over the game, but that he does not get pushed around on offense. The key for the Mavericks is Jason Terry and Jason Kidd. Jason Kidd is one of the best playmakers in the game, so he will have to get his top guns in the game. Jason Terry has to be a big contributor off the bench. The Lakers have Lamar Odom, and in order to lessen the blow of his production, Terry has to play well. The key match-up is whomever guards Bryant (likely Shawn Marion) vs. Kobe Bryant. Kobe Bryant is at his best in the playoffs. In order to have any chance of thinking about winning the series, Bryant has to be limited. The Mavericks have to play him physically. But Kobe Bryant has to trust his teammates, especially Andrew Bynum, who can overpower Tyson Chandler. I predict Lakers in 7.
Friday, April 15, 2011
NBA Playoff Predictions
So the NBA playoffs start tomorrow, so I'm going to do a series by series coverage of whom I think will win, key factors in each game, and how long the series will last.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #8 Indiana Pacers
The Chicago Bulls have this series in the bag. The Indiana Pacers are not a good enough defensive team to contain Derrick Rose. The Bulls have the advantage on offense, defense, bench play, coaching, and intangibles. The Bulls' success will likely hinge on if the Bulls can contain the offensively minded Pacers, which they have done in the past. The Pacers' success will hinge on whether they can injure Derrick Rose without incurring the wrath of the entirety of Chicago. The key match up will be between Danny Granger and Luol Deng. Granger can be one of the best scorers in the NBA, but Deng is one of the best defensive players on the Bulls. Watch for him, and Ronnie Brewer (another superb one-on-one defender), to contain Granger. Bulls win in 4.
#2 Miami Heat vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers
The Miami Heat are also clear favorites in the match up on star power alone. But the 76ers are a good defensive team with a stronger bench than the Heat. Andre Igoudala can match up defensively against either Dwyane Wade or LeBron James, and the pair of Elton Brand and Thaddeus Young should be interesting for the Miami Heat. But James, Wade, and Chris Bosh will be too much. The key for Miami will be bench play, as it typically is. The key for Philadelphia is containing the Big Three. The key match up is Iguodala and James/Wade. Iguodala is a great defender, but Wade and James both can put up monster stats against even the best of teams. Miami wins in 5.
#3 Boston Celtics vs. #6 New York Knicks
People have been down on Boston as of late and up on the Knicks because of recent play. Boston is looking their age while the Knicks seem to have finally integrated Carmelo Anthony into their offense. Boston is the favorite in this match up based on sheer experience, though the Knicks do have battle-tested guard Chauncey Billups on their side. The key for the Celtics is health. The Celtics need either of the O'Neals (Jermaine or Shaq) to be healthy in order to really put a strain on the very offensive-minded Knicks. The key for the Knicks is defense. The Knicks are all about offense, a trademark of Mike D'Antoni's coaching style. But with the defense that the Celtics have, the Knicks will need to toughen up on that side. The key match up is Kevin Garnett and Amare Stoudemire. If Stoudemire can get hot, he can start opening up outside play from players like Toney Douglas and Landry Fields. But the offense must run through Stoudemire, not Anthony, for the Knicks to have success. But he will be guarded by Kevin Garnett, one of the stingiest and best defenders in the league not named Howard. Celtics win in 5.
#4 Orlando Magic vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks own the regular season record over the Magic, but I still favor the Magic in this match up, though neither team is really superb. The Magic are still working out a chemistry between their new players, though Jason Richardson has been great as of late. It is primarily Gilbert Arenas who draws concern because of his inconsistency on the court. The Hawks are just trying to make it to a seventh game, having digressed a lot since the last year. The key for the Magic is to hit their 3-point shots. This team shoots a lot of 3-point shots despite having the best center in the league. So if they are going to shoot the 3, they better make it. The key for the Hawks is getting your scorers involved. After signing a huge contract, Joe Johnson has underachieved and will need a brilliant postseason to redeem himself. The key match up is Dwight Howard versus whomever the Hawks put on him. If Derrick Rose is MVP, Howard is a very close second. He changes the game on both ends of the court, as long as he is not on the stripe. If the Hawks contain Howard, they will win the series. But if they let Howard run free, Orlando will have its way. Magic in 7.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 San Antonio Spurs vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies
This is not as outmatched as a typical #1 v. #8 match-up. The Grizzlies have been very good against the Spurs, but the Grizzlies are without Rudy Gay. The Spurs will also be without Manu Ginobili. The key for the Spurs is coaching. Gregg Poppovich is one of the best coaches ever, and with an aging team with waning talent, he will have to outcoach Lionel Hollins, which is no short task. The key for the Grizzlies is regaining the scoring lost from Gay's injury. Sam Young has been good as of late, and O.J. Mayo adds some very good scoring off the bench. But will it be good enough for the strong Spurs defense? The key match up is Zach Randolph versus Tim Duncan. Randolph is the younger and more talented of the two, but there are few power forwards as seasoned in the playoffs as Tim Duncan. Duncan is also a proven winner, while Randolph is still growing into his new mature role on a team. Spurs win in 6.
#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets
As good as Chris Paul is, he is not nearly good enough to beat the Los Angeles Lakers. If the Bulls v. Pacers game is the most uneven, this comes in second. The Hornets will not have their best post presence in David West, and even with West, they were a weak playoff team. Chris Paul is a game changer, but he is having a career low season. The Lakers are trying to defend their crown, so they will be playing with extreme tenacity. Also add the playoff experience of Phil Jackson, Derek Fisher, and Kobe Bryant, and you have a recipe for success. The key for the Lakers is perimeter defense. Without West commanding the middle, the Hornets will look for more opportunities from the perimeter, which can be made through Paul. The key for the Hornets is to establish a post presence. No perimeter game succeeds without a significant post presence, so Emeka Okafor will be important to the success of the Hornets. The key match up is between Okafor and Pau Gasol. If Gasol can keep Okafor in check, the Lakers can shut down the interior game, forcing them to go outside, where their defense can thus take over. Lakers win in 4.
#3 Dallas Mavericks vs. #6 Portland Trail Blazers
The Mavericks are underachievers in the playoffs and the Trail Blazers are a young team looking for some momentum to build upon next year. This is very blunt and flawed, but it covers the teams very well. The Mavericks are an amazing team, but always seem to have problems in the playoffs (see: Golden State Warriors, Miami Heat). But with Nowitzki playing some of his best basketball, that all may change. But the Trail Blazers also are playing amazingly well behind some great play by LaMarcus Aldridge. The key for the Mavericks is Jason Kidd. Kidd is one of the best point guards to play the game. They should let him lead, but allow the offense to run through Nowitzki. The key for the Trail Blazers is their wing players. Brandon Roy is a game changer when healthy, but they have other strong players like Nicolas Batum, Rudy Fernandez, and newly acquired Gerald Wallace. If they can get those wing men slashing and grinding, they can get Aldridge better looks at the basket. The key match up is Tyson Chandler/Marcus Camby versus LaMarcus Aldridge/Dirk Nowitzki. They both have great defensive centers who will most likely be matched against their opponent's starting power forward. Both players can post up and hit the long jumper, though Aldridge is stronger and Nowitzki is more accurate. This dynamic will be key throughout the series. Trail Blazers win in 7.
#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #5 Denver Nuggets
This will be the most interesting match up of the first round, essentially pinning two very equally matched teams against each other. The center match up is going to be interesting, pegging Nene, a great post player, against Kendrick Perkins, one of the best post defenders in the game. The key for the Thunder is Russell Westbrook. Kevin Durant will find ways to score, but to beat a versatile Nuggets team, Westbrook will have to be Durant's second fiddle. The key for the Nuggets is sharing the ball. They have been winning because they have so many good weapons. Wilson Chandler, Kenyon Martin, Nene Hilario, Danilo Gallinari, Ty Lawton, and Raymond Felton are all great players who can make good contributions. The key match up is Kevin Durant versus whomever Denver throws his way. Arron Afflalo is one of their better defenders, but he is a tad undersized. Chris Andersen would be another good defender, but he does not play as well on the perimeter. Finding the right guard for Durant will be difficult and may determine the outcome of the series. Thunder win in 6.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Chicago Bulls vs. #8 Indiana Pacers
The Chicago Bulls have this series in the bag. The Indiana Pacers are not a good enough defensive team to contain Derrick Rose. The Bulls have the advantage on offense, defense, bench play, coaching, and intangibles. The Bulls' success will likely hinge on if the Bulls can contain the offensively minded Pacers, which they have done in the past. The Pacers' success will hinge on whether they can injure Derrick Rose without incurring the wrath of the entirety of Chicago. The key match up will be between Danny Granger and Luol Deng. Granger can be one of the best scorers in the NBA, but Deng is one of the best defensive players on the Bulls. Watch for him, and Ronnie Brewer (another superb one-on-one defender), to contain Granger. Bulls win in 4.
#2 Miami Heat vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers
The Miami Heat are also clear favorites in the match up on star power alone. But the 76ers are a good defensive team with a stronger bench than the Heat. Andre Igoudala can match up defensively against either Dwyane Wade or LeBron James, and the pair of Elton Brand and Thaddeus Young should be interesting for the Miami Heat. But James, Wade, and Chris Bosh will be too much. The key for Miami will be bench play, as it typically is. The key for Philadelphia is containing the Big Three. The key match up is Iguodala and James/Wade. Iguodala is a great defender, but Wade and James both can put up monster stats against even the best of teams. Miami wins in 5.
#3 Boston Celtics vs. #6 New York Knicks
People have been down on Boston as of late and up on the Knicks because of recent play. Boston is looking their age while the Knicks seem to have finally integrated Carmelo Anthony into their offense. Boston is the favorite in this match up based on sheer experience, though the Knicks do have battle-tested guard Chauncey Billups on their side. The key for the Celtics is health. The Celtics need either of the O'Neals (Jermaine or Shaq) to be healthy in order to really put a strain on the very offensive-minded Knicks. The key for the Knicks is defense. The Knicks are all about offense, a trademark of Mike D'Antoni's coaching style. But with the defense that the Celtics have, the Knicks will need to toughen up on that side. The key match up is Kevin Garnett and Amare Stoudemire. If Stoudemire can get hot, he can start opening up outside play from players like Toney Douglas and Landry Fields. But the offense must run through Stoudemire, not Anthony, for the Knicks to have success. But he will be guarded by Kevin Garnett, one of the stingiest and best defenders in the league not named Howard. Celtics win in 5.
#4 Orlando Magic vs. #5 Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks own the regular season record over the Magic, but I still favor the Magic in this match up, though neither team is really superb. The Magic are still working out a chemistry between their new players, though Jason Richardson has been great as of late. It is primarily Gilbert Arenas who draws concern because of his inconsistency on the court. The Hawks are just trying to make it to a seventh game, having digressed a lot since the last year. The key for the Magic is to hit their 3-point shots. This team shoots a lot of 3-point shots despite having the best center in the league. So if they are going to shoot the 3, they better make it. The key for the Hawks is getting your scorers involved. After signing a huge contract, Joe Johnson has underachieved and will need a brilliant postseason to redeem himself. The key match up is Dwight Howard versus whomever the Hawks put on him. If Derrick Rose is MVP, Howard is a very close second. He changes the game on both ends of the court, as long as he is not on the stripe. If the Hawks contain Howard, they will win the series. But if they let Howard run free, Orlando will have its way. Magic in 7.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 San Antonio Spurs vs. #8 Memphis Grizzlies
This is not as outmatched as a typical #1 v. #8 match-up. The Grizzlies have been very good against the Spurs, but the Grizzlies are without Rudy Gay. The Spurs will also be without Manu Ginobili. The key for the Spurs is coaching. Gregg Poppovich is one of the best coaches ever, and with an aging team with waning talent, he will have to outcoach Lionel Hollins, which is no short task. The key for the Grizzlies is regaining the scoring lost from Gay's injury. Sam Young has been good as of late, and O.J. Mayo adds some very good scoring off the bench. But will it be good enough for the strong Spurs defense? The key match up is Zach Randolph versus Tim Duncan. Randolph is the younger and more talented of the two, but there are few power forwards as seasoned in the playoffs as Tim Duncan. Duncan is also a proven winner, while Randolph is still growing into his new mature role on a team. Spurs win in 6.
#2 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #7 New Orleans Hornets
As good as Chris Paul is, he is not nearly good enough to beat the Los Angeles Lakers. If the Bulls v. Pacers game is the most uneven, this comes in second. The Hornets will not have their best post presence in David West, and even with West, they were a weak playoff team. Chris Paul is a game changer, but he is having a career low season. The Lakers are trying to defend their crown, so they will be playing with extreme tenacity. Also add the playoff experience of Phil Jackson, Derek Fisher, and Kobe Bryant, and you have a recipe for success. The key for the Lakers is perimeter defense. Without West commanding the middle, the Hornets will look for more opportunities from the perimeter, which can be made through Paul. The key for the Hornets is to establish a post presence. No perimeter game succeeds without a significant post presence, so Emeka Okafor will be important to the success of the Hornets. The key match up is between Okafor and Pau Gasol. If Gasol can keep Okafor in check, the Lakers can shut down the interior game, forcing them to go outside, where their defense can thus take over. Lakers win in 4.
#3 Dallas Mavericks vs. #6 Portland Trail Blazers
The Mavericks are underachievers in the playoffs and the Trail Blazers are a young team looking for some momentum to build upon next year. This is very blunt and flawed, but it covers the teams very well. The Mavericks are an amazing team, but always seem to have problems in the playoffs (see: Golden State Warriors, Miami Heat). But with Nowitzki playing some of his best basketball, that all may change. But the Trail Blazers also are playing amazingly well behind some great play by LaMarcus Aldridge. The key for the Mavericks is Jason Kidd. Kidd is one of the best point guards to play the game. They should let him lead, but allow the offense to run through Nowitzki. The key for the Trail Blazers is their wing players. Brandon Roy is a game changer when healthy, but they have other strong players like Nicolas Batum, Rudy Fernandez, and newly acquired Gerald Wallace. If they can get those wing men slashing and grinding, they can get Aldridge better looks at the basket. The key match up is Tyson Chandler/Marcus Camby versus LaMarcus Aldridge/Dirk Nowitzki. They both have great defensive centers who will most likely be matched against their opponent's starting power forward. Both players can post up and hit the long jumper, though Aldridge is stronger and Nowitzki is more accurate. This dynamic will be key throughout the series. Trail Blazers win in 7.
#4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. #5 Denver Nuggets
This will be the most interesting match up of the first round, essentially pinning two very equally matched teams against each other. The center match up is going to be interesting, pegging Nene, a great post player, against Kendrick Perkins, one of the best post defenders in the game. The key for the Thunder is Russell Westbrook. Kevin Durant will find ways to score, but to beat a versatile Nuggets team, Westbrook will have to be Durant's second fiddle. The key for the Nuggets is sharing the ball. They have been winning because they have so many good weapons. Wilson Chandler, Kenyon Martin, Nene Hilario, Danilo Gallinari, Ty Lawton, and Raymond Felton are all great players who can make good contributions. The key match up is Kevin Durant versus whomever Denver throws his way. Arron Afflalo is one of their better defenders, but he is a tad undersized. Chris Andersen would be another good defender, but he does not play as well on the perimeter. Finding the right guard for Durant will be difficult and may determine the outcome of the series. Thunder win in 6.
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